Southeast Anatolia project and its impact on international relations in the Mesopotamia region (the end of the 20th - the beginning of the 21st century)

Abstract

The article focuses on clarification of the main reasons for the formation and development of the Turkish-Syrian-Iraqi contradictions regarding the joint use of the rivers of Mesopotamia. The degree of effectiveness of the agreements concluded during the period of the 1940s – the 2010s and other interstate normative legal acts related to the use of the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers have been elucidated. The purpose of our research is to analyse the results of Turkey's implementation of the Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP) – a multi-sectoral integrated regional development project based on the concept of a sustainable development of the south-eastern region of Turkey, the main component of which was aimed at expanding the opportunities and scale of economic use of water resources. Its consequences for water supply and water use in the Tigris and Euphrates river basins have been clarified. An attempt is made to explain the role of GAP in the “water conflict” between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the following: based on the processing of documentary sources, statistical materials, numerous analytical publications, both national and provincial, as well as relying on the authors' own field research, there has been maked one of the first attempts in Ukrainian historiography to show the depth and magnitude of the GAP's impact on interstate relations in the Mesopotamia region. The methodological basis of the research is the principles of historicism, scientificity, interdisciplinarity, a value approach and the use of general scientific (analysis, synthesis and generalization) methods.

As a result of the scientific analysis carried out with the involvement of numerous original sources, the following conclusions have been made: GAP is one of the largest regional development projects ever implemented in the Middle East and one of the nine largest engineering projects in the world nowadays. During the period of the 1990s – the 2010s, the GAP completely transformed the region of Southeast Anatolia, reducing the disparity between regions and creating favourable conditions for socio-economic development. On the other hand, the GAP has caused great alarm in Syria and Iraq, since its launch at full capacity will deprive Syria of 50% and Iraq of 90% of their water flow from the Euphrates, so the authors note that in order to prevent new conflicts, Turkey, Syria and Iraq should develop and actually implement a compromise long-term strategic plan for the management and exploitation of water resources.